The NR-Rating model ran 10,000 simulations of this race. Top 10 contenders by win probability, with their Top-5 finish share and expected finishing position.

Rank	Driver	Win Prob.	Top-5 Share	Avg. Finish
1	Pick Denny Hamlin	18.2%	58.6%	6.2
2	Christopher Bell	17.8%	58.4%	7.8
3	Ryan Blaney	16.4%	56.1%	8.2
4	Chase Briscoe	15.5%	54.3%	9.2
5	Tyler Reddick	12.8%	49.3%	9.2
6	Kyle Larson	11.2%	46.7%	10.1
7	Joey Logano	10.0%	44.0%	10.5
8	Chase Elliott	8.9%	41.7%	10.7
9	Ty Gibbs	8.1%	39.1%	11.2
10	Bubba Wallace	6.9%	36.4%	11.9

Season So Far

Standings

Full →

1 Kyle Larson 2469

2 Christopher Bell 2402 -67

3 Denny Hamlin 2399 -70

4 Chase Briscoe 2385 -84

5 Joey Logano 2366 -103

Championship Odds

Full →

1 Denny Hamlin 15.2%

2 Ryan Blaney 13.8%

3 Christopher Bell 11.2%

4 Tyler Reddick 10.6%

5 Kyle Larson 9.6%

Trending This Week

Drivers

Tracks

Upcoming Races

Full Schedule →

Date	Race	Track	Type	TV
Nov 8	NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race	Homestead-Miami Speedway	intermediate

About NASCAR Reference

NASCAR Reference is an independent, data-first platform covering the full breadth of stock car racing. Our database spans 78 seasons of Cup Series results dating back to 1949, 4,362 driver profiles with complete career statistics, and detailed track histories across all three national series. Browse historical standings or explore our NR-Rating prediction model, built on a transparent methodology, to see win probabilities, expected finishes, and performance quality scores. Built for fans settling debates, media on deadline, and bettors seeking an analytical edge. Learn more about our mission.

Seasons: 78
Drivers: 4,362
Tracks: 187
Series: 3

Explore More

Race Results Standings All Drivers Explore All